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Aaron's Baseball Blog - Basketball (February 9, 2004)
Discussion ThreadPosted 12:22 p.m.,
February 9, 2004
(#2) -
Jim P
You'd have to make two more adjustments:
1. Some free throws come from non-shooting fouls.
2. Some free throws come after successful shots (the old-fashioned 3 point play).
Aaron's Baseball Blog - Basketball (February 9, 2004)
Posted 1:42 p.m.,
February 9, 2004
(#7) -
Jim P
(homepage)
Jim: I understand why you want to exclude non-shooting fouls, just like technical fouls. But why would you want to exclude fouls completing a 3-point play?
We shouldn't exclude the "and one", but include it as part of the same opportunity.
And with fouls on 3 point shots, the shooter gets 3 free throws, so those 3 foul shots also count as 1 opp.
nba.com didn't have detailed stats, but espn has adjusted field goal pct and a bastardized points per shot (see homepage).
* PPS: Points Per Shot = PTS/FGA
^ AFG%: Adjusted FG Percentage = [(PTS - FTM)/FGA]/2
ADJ FG% measures shooting efficiency by taking into account the total points a player produces through his field goal attempts. The intention of this adjustment is largely to evaluate the impact of three-point shooting. For ex: If Shaquille O'Neal has 3-5 FG, all two-point shots for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600. Meanwhile, if Ray Allen is 2-5 FG, but his 2 FGM are both three-pointers for 6 points, then his ADJ FG% = [(6/5)]/2 = .600
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Thinking about it some more, I'd say that we could probably ignore all these adjustments for most players and just say that opp = FGA + FTA/2.
Aaron's Baseball Blog - Basketball (February 9, 2004)
Posted 5:41 p.m.,
February 9, 2004
(#23) -
Jim P
Player A takes 100 2pt shots, hits on 50, and the other 50 are rebounded. Of those 50, the opposition grabs 40 of them, and the off gets another 10 possessions.
Player B take 100 3pt shots, hits on 33, and the other 67 are rebounded. Of those 67, the opposition grabs 63 of them, and the off gets another 4 possessions.
Did you mean to estimate that the defense grabs 80% of the rebounds off missed 2 pointers, but 93% of rebounds off 3 pointers? I would have guessed that 3 pointers would have led to more offensive rebounds from the ball bouncing hard off the rim, maybe something like:
99% of free throws are rebounded by the defense
80% of 2 pointers
70% of 3 pointers.
This would lead to an equivalent shooter B with:
100 3pt shots
25 hits
4 fouls (of which he makes 80%, and which the def gets back all of them)
21.3 missed and off rebound
49.7 missed and def rebound
So, that's a total of 75+3.2 = 78.2 points earned for a price of 78.7 possessions turnover. His shooting percentage is 26.0%.